Causal scenarios are calculated by the Hollow Majority v1.56 engine from declared inputs, and so are the four C9 scenario profiles (C9-A to C9-D). The hand-entered legacy POV fixtures are archived (v1.5.4); the frozen C9 $115 run stays under Manual outcome override. Fixture seat maps are illustrative: one C9 v1.56 geography (oil rule at $115) rescaled to each total; no seat is modelled locally; synthetic seats are marked.
Experimental mechanisms, off by default, outside calibrated support: a holiday-interrupted campaign (Election timing) and US-midterm right-movement morale (Technical mode); neither is calibrated and Christmas does not automatically benefit the government. Scenario-only layers, off by default (Technical mode): extra parties (Restore Britain only; Your Party is blocked), EU salience and voter reactivation (every rate 0, no destination), and tactical voting (national-neutral; tested for the Conservative target only). Not modelled: differential turnout or calibrated tactical-voting effects. The old tactical campaign stand-in is retired; Conservative–Reform transitions use a declared gross national-points budget. Probabilities are unavailable. Lab + LD totals are stance-blind arithmetic, not feasibility.
One configuration, broadcast style.
This visual simulator can still work fine even if a snap general election isn't called: just adjust the relevant coefficient and press Go.
Preset
B
About this run
A vs B
Pick a preset above, then start. Sound on, so turn your volume up. About two minutes at 1×.
Milestones
click or drag to jump
Government formation
exit-poll figures
326 overall-majority shorthand (half of 650 + 1)W – working line (half of voting MPs + 1)336 C9 stability buffer (analytical heuristic)
Assumptions: working line, baseline, measures
Party state
exit-poll figures
Fragility and the all-close-seats adversarial bound
deterministic · final seat pattern
Flip every seat within
Route-closure timeline
Reform scenario-conversion testCOMPARES C9 SCENARIOS · NOT A REAL-WORLD CEILING